That said, I missed the best price on Barboza's moneyline (+150), and I'm inclined to wait for that price to pop up again before making a play since the number has since moved in line with my projection (+135).įor now, bet Barboza to win inside the distance (+300 at DraftKings, projected 30% or +233). I'd give more credence to Mitchell in the smaller cage at the APEX, but I like Barboza's chances to find his range in the full-size cage.
Bryce mitchell barboza plus#
I'd be happy to consider Barboza at plus money in what amounts to a binary finish on either side - or a potentially back and forth decision where judges have to weigh Barboza's effective striking against Mitchell's effective grappling. If the Brazilian can do the same here, he will put a hurting on the camouflaged prospect.Īt favorite money, this looks like a "prove it" spot for Mitchell.
While Barboza can be taken down (78% takedown defense), only Khabib (10:32 of control in a 30-25, 30-25, 30-24 decision) kept him there for extended periods.īarboza returned to his feet to out-strike a similar archetype to Mitchell in Makwan Amirkhani (landed three of six takedowns, but only 3:13 of control) in October 2020, just weeks before Mitchell's most recent bout.
Mitchell will attempt to turn this fight into a grind, both up against the cage and on the mat, to see whether Barboza can fend him off or get back to his feet. On the feet, the striking should be one-way traffic in favor of Barboza, who will make use of his size advantage (five inches of reach) and kicking game to take away Mitchell's movement from a distance. Mitchell seemingly needs tons of control, time and pressure to win his toughest test to date. grappler match as you can find at the highest levels of modern MMA. We featured this bout as our "Fight of the Night" candidate on the Action Network podcast.Īnd this matchup is about as binary of a striker vs. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here. The Arkansas native is 5-0 in UFC and is making his first appearance since Halloween 2020.īelow I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. Undefeated Bryce Mitchell faces the toughest test of his UFC career against Edson Barboza on the UFC 272 main card.īarboza is 2-2 since moving down to 145 pounds, and Mitchell’s wrestling ability will present a very difficult test.
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